Consensus PnL $656K · win rate 32% (464–1001, n=1465) · was PM monthly #943 · holds 170 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$656.0K
Record
464W / 1001L
Win Rate
32.0%
of 1465 settled
Batting Avg
70.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2193
Source
PM monthly #943 + pinned
Trades
385,359
Markets
3,580
Volume
$67.9M
Top consensus positions
170 in listed consensus markets · 139 of 170 on the consensus side (82%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $95K · now 81¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $50K · now 28¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $29K · now 87¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (27% of 22)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $23K · now 23¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $21K · now 33¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $21K · now 28¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No $15K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $12K · now 35¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
Specialties
1,671 settled consensus markets · held side won 31% at an average entry of 30¢- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 44% of 232 · avg entry 40¢
ROI −1%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 42% of 123 · avg entry 39¢
ROI −2%
- MLB
+7 pts
side won 53% of 32 · avg entry 46¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: College Basketball — held side won 15% of 66 at an average 27¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 66%(won 4% of 1097)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 39% of 94)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 62% of 102)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 98% of 378)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.