Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$15.8K
$-4.4K
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 99.7¢ | $10.0K | $10.0K | -$5 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $91.19 | $4.4K | $-4.5K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$1.36 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $172.85 | $168.42 | +$52.57 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.35 | $5.36 | +$0.01 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$9,970
Value
$10.0K
PnL
-$5
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$91.19
Value
$4.4K
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
balthazarInvested
$1,197.16
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$1.36
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$172.85
Value
$168.42
PnL
+$52.57
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$5.36
PnL
+$0.01
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.