Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.2K
$-7.4K
0.6¢ → 0.1¢
-77% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $2.1K | $-7.4K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $79.4 | $79.43 | +$12.1 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.67 | $9.67 | -$0 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.1 | $0.2 | +$0.1 | 78% 285-79 (364) |
PO poposubCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.15 | $0.16 | -$0.99 | 45% 2069-2501 (4570) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$2.1K
PnL
$-7.4K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
Invested
$79.4
Value
$79.43
PnL
+$12.1
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$9.67
Value
$9.67
PnL
-$0
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.2
PnL
+$0.1
Record
78%
285-79 (364)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$0.99
Record
45%
2069-2501 (4570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.