Consensus PnL $37K · win rate 81% (289–68, n=357) · PM monthly #585 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$37.3K
Record
289W / 68L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 357 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#406
Source
PM monthly #585
Trades
92
Markets
411
Volume
$265.1K
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 14 on the consensus side (29%)- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $139 · now 53¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $18 · now 5¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $11 · now 70¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (76% of 95)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $11 · now 26¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $10 · now 27¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes $6 · now 3¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $6 · now 25¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
- NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?Yes $6 · now 6¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
293 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 81¢- Economy
+10 pts
side won 92% of 26 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +4%
- Finance
+16 pts
side won 88% of 17 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +10%
- Elections
+7 pts
side won 96% of 25 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 85% of 13 at an average 91¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 20% of 41)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 50% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 79% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 77%(won 100% of 226)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.