Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$5.5K
$-4.3K
0.6¢ → 0.4¢
-43% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $1.6M | $5.5K | $-4.2K | 44% 577-748 (1325) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $78.12 | $35 | -$43.12 | 56% 15515-12123 (27638) |
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $38.9 | $12.45 | -$26.45 | 52% 1154-1067 (2221) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yes | $8.99 | $8.99 | +$0 | 45% 2314-2839 (5153) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $9.61 | $6.41 | -$3.2 | 44% 6439-8045 (14484) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $2.99 | $4.7 | +$1.71 | 50% 1220-1232 (2452) |
Invested
$1,565,631.13
Value
$5.5K
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
44%
577-748 (1325)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$78.12
Value
$35
PnL
-$43.12
Record
56%
15515-12123 (27638)
Invested
$38.9
Value
$12.45
PnL
-$26.45
Record
52%
1154-1067 (2221)
Invested
$8.99
Value
$8.99
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
2314-2839 (5153)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$6.41
PnL
-$3.2
Record
44%
6439-8045 (14484)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$1.71
Record
50%
1220-1232 (2452)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.