Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.6¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$5.5K
$-4.8K
0.7¢ → 0.6¢
-10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
43h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $5.0K | $-4.5K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $218.58 | $232.72 | -$132.74 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 Tenebrus7CTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $323.88 | $127.75 | -$89.45 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $91.72 | $84.76 | -$31.75 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.21 | $0.03 | -$0.18 | 78% 285-79 (364) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$5.0K
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
Invested
$218.58
Value
$232.72
PnL
-$132.74
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Tenebrus7CTRInvested
$323.88
Value
$127.75
PnL
-$89.45
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$91.72
Value
$84.76
PnL
-$31.75
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.18
Record
78%
285-79 (364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.