Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 99¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$17.1K
-$304.53
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $16.57 | $8.6K | -$189.6 | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.4¢ | $8.0K | $8.0K | -$2.51 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $542.02 | $392.7 | -$107.32 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
PL plumbisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $46.92 | $40.21 | -$3.35 | 57% 51-39 (90) |
TR TrueDignityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $6.3 | $4.2 | -$1.75 | 37% 44-76 (120) |
Invested
$16.57
Value
$8.6K
PnL
-$189.6
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
balthazarInvested
$8,045.25
Value
$8.0K
PnL
-$2.51
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$542.02
Value
$392.7
PnL
-$107.32
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$46.92
Value
$40.21
PnL
-$3.35
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$1.75
Record
37%
44-76 (120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.