Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$3.8K
$-6.2K
0.6¢ → 0.3¢
-61% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
52h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $3.6K | $-6.0K | 44% 577-748 (1325) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $252.29 | $147.9 | -$91.58 | 52% 1205-1095 (2300) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $18.47 | $30.7 | +$12.23 | 41% 1997-2831 (4828) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $78.12 | $25 | -$53.12 | 56% 15494-12093 (27587) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $51.68 | $16.76 | -$34.93 | 45% 2290-2797 (5087) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $21.21 | $2.82 | -$12.17 | 21% 813-3020 (3833) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$3.6K
PnL
$-6.0K
Record
44%
577-748 (1325)
Invested
$252.29
Value
$147.9
PnL
-$91.58
Record
52%
1205-1095 (2300)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$18.47
Value
$30.7
PnL
+$12.23
Record
41%
1997-2831 (4828)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$78.12
Value
$25
PnL
-$53.12
Record
56%
15494-12093 (27587)
Invested
$51.68
Value
$16.76
PnL
-$34.93
Record
45%
2290-2797 (5087)
Invested
$21.21
Value
$2.82
PnL
-$12.17
Record
21%
813-3020 (3833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.