Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 14%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$-7.8K

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares10,000

Combined PnL+$15

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares1,480,092

Combined PnL$-7.8K

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 99.7¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	+$15	56% 15515-12123 (27638)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.5K	$2.1K	$-7.4K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$200.39	$61.59	+$144.06	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$38.9	$7.47	-$31.43	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yes	$5.15	$5.15	-$21.34	45% 2314-2839 (5153)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.81	$1.69	-$7.12	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.17	$0.03	-$479.31	35% 104-196 (300)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$15

Record

56%

15515-12123 (27638)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,538.86

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$200.39

Value

$61.59

PnL

+$144.06

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.9

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$31.43

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$21.34

Record

45%

2314-2839 (5153)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$7.12

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$479.31

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.