Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$2.3K
$-8.0K
0.6¢ → 0.1¢
-75% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
50h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.5M | $2.2K | $-7.4K | 44% 577-748 (1325) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $138.56 | $126.54 | -$12.02 | 52% 1205-1095 (2300) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $31.37 | $6.02 | -$25.35 | 26% 179-504 (683) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $29.41 | $5.65 | -$23.76 | 21% 813-3020 (3833) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $6.12 | $1.36 | -$40.68 | 36% 16787-30093 (46880) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.51 | $0.68 | -$2.84 | 62% 7129-4350 (11479) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.9 | $0.17 | -$500.65 | 36% 99-173 (272) |
Invested
$1,465,076.79
Value
$2.2K
PnL
$-7.4K
Record
44%
577-748 (1325)
Invested
$138.56
Value
$126.54
PnL
-$12.02
Record
52%
1205-1095 (2300)
Invested
$31.37
Value
$6.02
PnL
-$25.35
Record
26%
179-504 (683)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$5.65
PnL
-$23.76
Record
21%
813-3020 (3833)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$40.68
Record
36%
16787-30093 (46880)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$2.84
Record
62%
7129-4350 (11479)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$500.65
Record
36%
99-173 (272)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.