Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$8.3K
$16.45
99.3¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.4¢ | $7.4K | $7.3K | -$4.72 | 61% 21387-13669 (35056) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $453.27 | $421.95 | -$14.91 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $378.35 | $409.88 | +$31.53 | 43% 570-741 (1311) |
MI milkteaboba | Noavg 94.2¢ | $110 | $108.09 | +$5.62 | 68% 38-18 (56) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.32 | $16.25 | -$1.07 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
balthazarInvested
$7,351.52
Value
$7.3K
PnL
-$4.72
Record
61%
21387-13669 (35056)
Invested
$453.27
Value
$421.95
PnL
-$14.91
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$378.35
Value
$409.88
PnL
+$31.53
Record
43%
570-741 (1311)
Invested
$110
Value
$108.09
PnL
+$5.62
Record
68%
38-18 (56)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$17.32
Value
$16.25
PnL
-$1.07
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.