Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-8.0K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-76% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares1,536,437

Combined PnL$-8.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

49h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$2.1K	$-7.4K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$108.32	$89.9	+$18.42	52% 1205-1095 (2300)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$31.37	$6.02	-$25.35	26% 179-504 (683)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$29.41	$5.65	-$23.76	21% 813-3020 (3833)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.8	$4.8	-$11.2	61% 669-426 (1095)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.71	$1.17	-$42.01	36% 16787-30093 (46880)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.6	$0.11	-$520.48	36% 99-173 (272)
PO poposubCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.59	$0.08	-$0.51	45% 2079-2508 (4587)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.32

Value

$89.9

PnL

+$18.42

Record

52%

1205-1095 (2300)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.37

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$25.35

Record

26%

179-504 (683)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.41

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$23.76

Record

21%

813-3020 (3833)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$11.2

Record

61%

669-426 (1095)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.71

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$42.01

Record

36%

16787-30093 (46880)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$520.48

Record

36%

99-173 (272)

poposubCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.51

Record

45%

2079-2508 (4587)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

49h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.