Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 1.2¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$25.4K
$7.8K
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $1.2K | $18.5K | +$7.8K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 98.8¢ | $6.6K | $6.6K | +$6.67 | 97% 2582-68 (2650) |
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 98.3¢ | $196.6 | $197.8 | +$1.1 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98.9¢ | $115.5 | $115.5 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $44.32 | $44.44 | +$0.11 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$1,156.84
Value
$18.5K
PnL
+$7.8K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
Invested
$6,582.67
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$6.67
Record
97%
2582-68 (2650)
TimeTravelerInvested
$196.6
Value
$197.8
PnL
+$1.1
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$115.5
Value
$115.5
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$44.32
Value
$44.44
PnL
+$0.11
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.