Consensus PnL -$133K · win rate 97% (2609–68, n=2677) · was PM monthly #839 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-133.5K
Record
2609W / 68L
Win Rate
97.0%
of 2677 settled
Batting Avg
44.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#113
Source
PM monthly #839
Trades
430
Markets
2,813
Volume
$51.4M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 14 on the consensus side (50%)- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $22K · now 46¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Over)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $18K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes $9.6K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No $8.4K · now 93¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?No $6.6K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $4.0K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $2.7K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (81% of 47)
- Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?No $2.2K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
2,638 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 97¢- NFL
+5 pts
side won 100% of 31 · avg entry 95¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 97% of 908 at an average 97¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 14% of 21)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 70% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 65% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 97%(won 99% of 2559)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.