Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$8.4K
$90.91
99.3¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.3¢ | $6.8K | $6.8K | -$4.2 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $759.52 | $854.46 | +$94.94 | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 99.3¢ | $551.12 | $550.56 | -$0.83 | 97% 2582-68 (2650) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $197.8 | $198.4 | +$0.6 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yes | $2.03 | $2.03 | +$0.4 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
balthazarInvested
$6,804.7
Value
$6.8K
PnL
-$4.2
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$759.52
Value
$854.46
PnL
+$94.94
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
Invested
$551.12
Value
$550.56
PnL
-$0.83
Record
97%
2582-68 (2650)
Tenebrus7Invested
$197.8
Value
$198.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$2.03
Value
$2.03
PnL
+$0.4
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.