Cong An Ha Noi FC vs. Kyoto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
$5.0K
$1.6K
61¢ → 97.1¢
+59% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 62.7¢ | $1.7K | $2.6K | +$907.79 | 51% 23350-22134 (45484) |
 RN1 | Underavg 62.3¢ | $825.12 | $1.2K | +$420.12 | 53% 58869-51174 (110043) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 57.6¢ | $872.89 | $1.1K | +$271.06 | 50% 27131-27060 (54191) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 67.8¢ | $30.69 | $41.63 | +$10.94 | 51% 7310-7059 (14369) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 50.2¢ | $13.67 | $20.54 | +$6.87 | 45% 13592-16514 (30106) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $10.81 | $13.21 | +$2.4 | 45% 10597-12769 (23366) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 68.1¢ | $3.41 | $3.4 | -$0.01 | 48% 6134-6542 (12676) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $5.67 | $2.72 | -$2.95 | 50% 25211-24910 (50121) |
Invested
$1,669.16
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$907.79
Record
51%
23350-22134 (45484)
RN1Invested
$825.12
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$420.12
Record
53%
58869-51174 (110043)
Invested
$872.89
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$271.06
Record
50%
27131-27060 (54191)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$30.69
Value
$41.63
PnL
+$10.94
Record
51%
7310-7059 (14369)
Invested
$13.67
Value
$20.54
PnL
+$6.87
Record
45%
13592-16514 (30106)
Invested
$10.81
Value
$13.21
PnL
+$2.4
Record
45%
10597-12769 (23366)
Invested
$3.41
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
6134-6542 (12676)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$2.95
Record
50%
25211-24910 (50121)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.