Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.1K
$469.83
83¢ → 93.3¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
12 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 73¢ | $1.7K | $2.2K | +$494.71 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
XC xcaiox | Noavg 96.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.7K | +$50.01 | 77% 200-61 (261) |
 paddaa<$100 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $67.21 | $82.31 | +$15.09 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $135.79 | $45.22 | -$90.57 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
TT tttt123<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | $2.63 | $3.21 | +$0.59 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
Invested
$1,747.93
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$494.71
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$1,110
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$50.01
Record
77%
200-61 (261)
paddaa<$100Invested
$67.21
Value
$82.31
PnL
+$15.09
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
Invested
$135.79
Value
$45.22
PnL
-$90.57
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
Invested
$2.63
Value
$3.21
PnL
+$0.59
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.