Consensus PnL $11K · win rate 68% (550–258, n=808) · hand-picked wallet · holds 89 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$11.4K
Record
550W / 258L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 808 settled
Batting Avg
94.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#814
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
37,519
Markets
2,261
Volume
$510.0K
Top consensus positions
89 in listed consensus markets · 63 of 89 on the consensus side (71%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $3.5K · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No $1.2K · now 85¢ · in at 87¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $200 · now 100¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?No $200 · now 100¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?No $198 · now 99¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No $194 · now 97¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (39% of 76)
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?No $193 · now 97¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $193 · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
1,753 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 65¢- Finance
+2 pts
side won 67% of 82 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +2%
- Other Sports
+13 pts
side won 75% of 12 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +7%
- Science
+3 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 55% of 83 at an average 69¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 12% of 223)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 32% of 206)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 54% of 370)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 87% of 954)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.