Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 87% (158–23, n=181) · PM monthly #765 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.2K
Record
158W / 23L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 181 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#297
Source
PM monthly #765
Trades
191
Markets
258
Volume
$67.7K
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 17 on the consensus side (82%)- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?No $3.5K · now 95¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?No $2.9K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?No $1.7K · now 93¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?No $1.5K · now 97¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes $639 · now 92¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $362 · now 97¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (92% of 51)
- Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No $321 · now 80¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $220 · now 96¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
Specialties
137 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 74¢- Soccer
+23 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +22%
- Tech
+10 pts
side won 83% of 71 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +13%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 80% of 10 at an average 81¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 30% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 60% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 71% of 24)
- 70¢ and up: 68%(won 98% of 93)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.