Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.6K
$536.71
93.7¢ → 95.3¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XC xcaiox | Noavg 97.8¢ | $900 | $3.5K | +$377.82 | 77% 200-61 (261) |
LO LongAndWindingRoad | Noavg 82.2¢ | $734.72 | $854.92 | +$120.2 | 61% 70-44 (114) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 81.2¢ | $162.37 | $190.09 | +$29.32 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 Gohst<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $13.17 | $34.77 | +$21.6 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $24.22 | $11.99 | -$12.23 | 51% 2097-1976 (4073) |
Invested
$900
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$377.82
Record
77%
200-61 (261)
Invested
$734.72
Value
$854.92
PnL
+$120.2
Record
61%
70-44 (114)
Invested
$162.37
Value
$190.09
PnL
+$29.32
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
Gohst<$100Invested
$13.17
Value
$34.77
PnL
+$21.6
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
Invested
$24.22
Value
$11.99
PnL
-$12.23
Record
51%
2097-1976 (4073)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.