Consensus PnL $4.1K · win rate 77% (36–11, n=47) · hand-picked wallet · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.1K
Record
36W / 11L
Win Rate
77.0%
of 47 settled
Batting Avg
47.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#532
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
1,676
Markets
161
Volume
$280.9K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 6 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $4.7K · now 71¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (88% of 27)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.0K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?No $855 · now 95¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $251 · now 40¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $166 · now 54¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (42% of 27)
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $64 · now 12¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (84% of 20)
Specialties
114 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 76¢- Economy
+8 pts
side won 83% of 30 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 67% of 30 at an average 72¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 8% of 13)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 43% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 60% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 90% of 84)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.