Consensus PnL $297K · win rate 44% (573–731, n=1304) · PM monthly #730 · holds 65 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$297.1K
Record
573W / 731L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 1304 settled
Batting Avg
66.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2007
Source
PM monthly #730 + pinned
Trades
5,901
Markets
1,678
Volume
$432.8K
Top consensus positions
65 in listed consensus markets · 44 of 65 on the consensus side (68%)- Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?No $34K · now 99¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (35% of 26)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $12K · now 36¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?No $8.7K · now 97¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?No $7.8K · now 99¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No $7.8K · now 99¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $5.2K · now 96¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $5.2K · now 89¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No $2.9K · now 91¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (69% of 16)
Specialties
999 settled consensus markets · held side won 42% at an average entry of 23¢- Weather
+50 pts
side won 74% of 19 · avg entry 24¢
ROI +70%
- Geopolitics
+22 pts
side won 47% of 366 · avg entry 25¢
ROI +13%
- Elections
+22 pts
side won 47% of 127 · avg entry 25¢
ROI +37%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 0% of 14 at an average 4¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 75%(won 32% of 753)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 73% of 231)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 62% of 13)
- 70¢ and up: 0%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.