Consensus PnL $61K · win rate 49% (1252–1318, n=2570) · hand-picked wallet · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$61.2K
Record
1252W / 1318L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 2570 settled
Batting Avg
68.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1833
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
24,135
Markets
4,337
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 16 on the consensus side (31%)- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?No $1.3K · now 91¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes $600 · now 11¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?No $460 · now 98¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- RFK Jr. Out by December 31?Yes $220 · now 25¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?Yes $182 · now 3¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?No $96 · now 89¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No $43 · now 33¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?No $36 · now 96¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
Specialties
1,053 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 50¢- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 63% of 198 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +10%
- Esports
+16 pts
side won 69% of 36 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +22%
- Elections
+8 pts
side won 63% of 115 · avg entry 54¢
ROI −6%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 39% of 75 at an average 44¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −31%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 24%(won 19% of 255)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 40% of 242)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 71% of 302)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 88% of 254)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.