Lima: Tristan Boyer vs Ryo Tabata
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tristan Boyer (60%) · Tristan Boyer at 84¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Tristan Boyer
5
Tristan Boyer 60%
$52.8
$1.94
Research grade
NeutralTristan Boyer at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Tristan Boyeravg 82.3¢ | $18.55 | $18.6 | +$0.05 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 16¢ | $9.6 | $11.1 | +$1.5 | 48% 667-712 (1379) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Tristan Boyeravg 84¢ | $10 | $9.7 | -$0.3 | 50% 47-47 (94) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 17¢ | $8.57 | $9.32 | +$0.76 | 57% 4029-3048 (7077) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Tristan Boyeravg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.07 | -$0.08 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.55
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$11.1
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
667-712 (1379)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.7
PnL
-$0.3
Record
50%
47-47 (94)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.57
Value
$9.32
PnL
+$0.76
Record
57%
4029-3048 (7077)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.07
PnL
-$0.08
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.