BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Casper Ruud (20%) · Casper Ruud at 78¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Casper Ruud
5
Casper Ruud 20%
$4.1K
-$19.21
Research grade
NeutralCasper Ruud at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Casper Ruud. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Casper Ruudavg 78¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$19.21 | 54% 1644-1413 (3057) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Alexander Shevchenkoavg 22¢ | $761.58 | $761.58 | +$0 | 50% 260-256 (516) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Alexander Shevchenkoavg 22¢ | $365.11 | $365.11 | +$0 | 50% 1432-1432 (2864) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Alexander Shevchenkoavg 22¢ | $27.72 | $27.72 | +$0 | 32% 183-396 (579) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Alexander Shevchenkoavg 22¢ | $3.05 | $3.05 | +$0 | 26% 232-661 (893) |
Invested
$2,997.43
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$19.21
Record
54%
1644-1413 (3057)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$761.58
Value
$761.58
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
260-256 (516)
Invested
$365.11
Value
$365.11
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1432-1432 (2864)
Invested
$27.72
Value
$27.72
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
183-396 (579)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
232-661 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.