Villa Maria: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Gonzalo Villanueva (43%) · Gonzalo Villanueva at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Carlos Maria Zarate41¢Gonzalo Villanueva59¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gonzalo Villanueva

Consensus Traders

Gonzalo Villanueva 43%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$35.48

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 59.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralGonzalo Villanueva at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gonzalo Villanueva

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Carlos Maria Zarate41%

Gonzalo Villanueva60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gonzalo Villanueva3 traders

Total Value$707.84

Total Shares1,155

Combined PnL+$46.48

Carlos Maria Zarate4 traders

Total Value$533.95

Total Shares1,320

Combined PnL-$11.01

Gonzalo Villanueva — 43%Carlos Maria Zarate — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Gonzalo Villanueva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Gonzalo Villanueva) and the top 1000 (5 on Carlos Maria Zarate) disagree here.

whaleGonzalo Villanueva 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrCarlos Maria Zarate 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedGonzalo Villanueva 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Carlos Maria Zarate 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Gonzalo Villanuevaavg 56¢	$1.1K	$642.51	+$47.79	50% 495-491 (986)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 40¢	$322.92	$326.95	+$4.04	58% 48507-34663 (83170)
nigiri99CTR	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 41.5¢	$116.94	$115.62	-$1.32	46% 7287-8596 (15883)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 46¢	$93.84	$80.58	-$13.26	54% 484-419 (903)
0xheavy888<$100	Gonzalo Villanuevaavg 59.5¢	$48.94	$47.48	-$1.46	55% 7458-5981 (13439)
VeryLucky888<$100	Gonzalo Villanuevaavg 59¢	$17.7	$17.85	+$0.15	58% 43595-31708 (75303)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Carlos Maria Zarateavg 41.7¢	$11.26	$10.8	-$0.46	46% 9226-10935 (20161)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Gonzalo Villanueva

Invested

$1,062

Value

$642.51

PnL

+$47.79

Record

50%

495-491 (986)

UpTheBluesCTR

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$322.92

Value

$326.95

PnL

+$4.04

Record

58%

48507-34663 (83170)

nigiri99CTR

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$116.94

Value

$115.62

PnL

-$1.32

Record

46%

7287-8596 (15883)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$93.84

Value

$80.58

PnL

-$13.26

Record

54%

484-419 (903)

0xheavy888<$100

Gonzalo Villanueva

Invested

$48.94

Value

$47.48

PnL

-$1.46

Record

55%

7458-5981 (13439)

VeryLucky888<$100

Gonzalo Villanueva

Invested

$17.7

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

43595-31708 (75303)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Carlos Maria Zarate

Invested

$11.26

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$0.46

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

Research grade

NeutralGonzalo Villanueva at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Gonzalo Villanueva

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Gonzalo Villanueva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Gonzalo Villanueva) and the top 1000 (5 on Carlos Maria Zarate) disagree here.

whaleGonzalo Villanueva 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrCarlos Maria Zarate 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedGonzalo Villanueva 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Carlos Maria Zarate 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gonzalo Villanueva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.