Will FC Salzburg win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$7.5K
$315.55
95.5¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Yesavg 99.4¢ | $5.7K | $5.7K | +$29.23 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 83¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$255.61 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 83¢ | $221.61 | $265.67 | +$44.72 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $14 | $1 | -$13 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.7¢ | $1.1 | $0.09 | -$1.01 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$5,688.78
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$29.23
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
RN1Invested
$1,251.64
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$255.61
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$221.61
Value
$265.67
PnL
+$44.72
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$14
Value
$1
PnL
-$13
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$1.01
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.