Energetik Mingechevir vs. Shahdag Qusar FK: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 53¢ · $243 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$243
-$15.05
63.3¢ → 53¢
-16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 62.3¢ | $139.94 | $120.19 | -$17.98 | 51% 25699-24415 (50114) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.4¢ | $37.18 | $45.07 | +$7.89 | 49% 14703-15372 (30075) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $53.45 | $43.33 | -$10.12 | 51% 37655-36884 (74539) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $28.33 | $32.09 | +$4.59 | 53% 1408-1254 (2662) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.1¢ | $1.81 | $2.33 | +$0.58 | 50% 21147-21407 (42554) |
Invested
$139.94
Value
$120.19
PnL
-$17.98
Record
51%
25699-24415 (50114)
Invested
$37.18
Value
$45.07
PnL
+$7.89
Record
49%
14703-15372 (30075)
Invested
$53.45
Value
$43.33
PnL
-$10.12
Record
51%
37655-36884 (74539)
Invested
$28.33
Value
$32.09
PnL
+$4.59
Record
53%
1408-1254 (2662)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$2.33
PnL
+$0.58
Record
50%
21147-21407 (42554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.