Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Energetik Mingechevir, while the market favors Shahdag Qusar FK (60%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Shahdag Qusar FK (-2.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Energetik Mingechevir (100%) · Energetik Mingechevir at 41¢ · $537 held · ended Nov 4
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Neutral
Energetik Mingechevir
4
Energetik Mingechevir 100%
1 arb excluded
$537.32
$2.05
47.4¢ → 40.5¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralEnergetik Mingechevir at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Shahdag Qusar FK 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Energetik Mingechevir. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Energetik Mingecheviravg 46.6¢ | $221.08 | $243.04 | +$21.96 | 51% 26028-24687 (50715) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Shahdag Qusar FKavg 67¢ | $161.01 | $165.48 | -$9.74 | 50% 28538-28389 (56927) |
| └ Shahdag Qusar FK leg | Shahdag Qusar FKavg 67¢ | $103.37 | $91.81 | -$25.77 | |
| └ Energetik Mingechevir leg | Energetik Mingecheviravg 41.2¢ | $74.92 | $73.67 | +$16.03 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Energetik Mingecheviravg 49.4¢ | $173 | $121.5 | -$21.5 | 58% 46840-33772 (80612) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Energetik Mingecheviravg 35.5¢ | $3.4 | $5.29 | +$1.89 | 67% 27537-13843 (41380) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Energetik Mingecheviravg 57.2¢ | $2.32 | $2.02 | -$0.3 | 50% 21258-21529 (42787) |
Invested
$221.08
Value
$243.04
PnL
+$21.96
Record
51%
26028-24687 (50715)
Invested
$161.01
Value
$165.48
PnL
-$9.74
Record
50%
28538-28389 (56927)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$173
Value
$121.5
PnL
-$21.5
Record
58%
46840-33772 (80612)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$1.89
Record
67%
27537-13843 (41380)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$0.3
Record
50%
21258-21529 (42787)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.