Energetik Mingechevir vs. Shahdag Qusar FK: O/U 3.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $415 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$415.35
-$2.07
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 50.7¢ | $353.16 | $357.13 | +$3.97 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.7¢ | $247.11 | $275.46 | +$28.35 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56.5¢ | $106.05 | $81.67 | -$24.38 | |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 58.4¢ | $45.2 | $43.48 | -$1.72 | 50% 27770-27632 (55402) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $8.61 | $8.68 | +$0.08 | 74% 2423-864 (3287) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 70.2¢ | $3.91 | $3.22 | -$0.69 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 33.1¢ | $1.65 | $2.82 | +$0.25 | 50% 20743-20989 (41732) |
Invested
$353.16
Value
$357.13
PnL
+$3.97
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.2
Value
$43.48
PnL
-$1.72
Record
50%
27770-27632 (55402)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$8.61
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$0.08
Record
74%
2423-864 (3287)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.91
Value
$3.22
PnL
-$0.69
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$2.82
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
20743-20989 (41732)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.