Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 11¢ · $405 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$404.73
-$52.41
13.6¢ → 11¢
-19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+80 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
436h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $452.45 | $237.02 | -$187.94 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23¢ | $348.48 | $156.02 | -$192.12 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81.5¢ | $73.36 | $81 | +$4.18 | |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $88.73 | $65.97 | -$21.03 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
FI firegoldCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $96.05 | $65.22 | -$31.77 | 59% 323-224 (547) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $36.06 | $35.88 | -$0.19 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.06 | $0.64 | +$0.57 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$452.45
Value
$237.02
PnL
-$187.94
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.73
Value
$65.97
PnL
-$21.03
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$96.05
Value
$65.22
PnL
-$31.77
Record
59%
323-224 (547)
Invested
$36.06
Value
$35.88
PnL
-$0.19
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.64
PnL
+$0.57
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.