Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 31% (569–1295, n=1864) · hand-picked wallet · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$21.5K
Record
569W / 1295L
Win Rate
31.0%
of 1864 settled
Batting Avg
70.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2197
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
81,641
Markets
4,076
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 36 on the consensus side (42%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?No $416 · now 71¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (46% of 13)
- Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes $293 · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (100% of 21)
- Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?No $265 · now 44¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No $250 · now 73¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (62% of 34)
- Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?Yes $247 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $244 · now 78¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (52% of 33)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No $241 · now 27¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $232 · now 55¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (50% of 26)
Specialties
1,686 settled consensus markets · held side won 26% at an average entry of 28¢- NBA
+4 pts
side won 38% of 121 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +6%
- Entertainment
+3 pts
side won 20% of 54 · avg entry 17¢
ROI +2%
- MLB
+10 pts
side won 43% of 28 · avg entry 33¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 27% of 475 at an average 31¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 59%(won 7% of 987)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 37% of 394)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 60% of 188)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 92% of 117)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.