Consensus PnL $31K · win rate 59% (310–213, n=523) · was PM monthly #908 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$31.4K
Record
310W / 213L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 523 settled
Batting Avg
54.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1228
Source
PM monthly #908
Trades
802
Markets
616
Volume
$725.4K
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 14 on the consensus side (93%)- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Yes $19K · now 99¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Yes $5.9K · now 94¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $5.4K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (95% of 37)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $4.4K · now 83¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (67% of 24)
- Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes $1.6K · now 90¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No $920 · now 92¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Yes $722 · now 87¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $700 · now 71¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (88% of 27)
Specialties
432 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 67¢- Economy
+11 pts
side won 73% of 167 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +7%
- Crypto
+8 pts
side won 85% of 72 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +8%
- Finance
+3 pts
side won 81% of 84 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 46% of 24 at an average 51¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 22% of 60)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 52% of 50)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 63% of 82)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 95% of 240)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.