Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 10?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$24.5K
$2.2K
85.8¢ → 95.7¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $16.5K | $18.2K | +$1.7K | 61% 38-24 (62) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $4.4K | $4.8K | +$432.03 | 40% 29-44 (73) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 86.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$11.13 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $116.54 | $125.48 | +$8.94 | — 3-2 (5) |
 balthazarARB<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $165.25 | $125.08 | -$40.17 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85.9¢ | $87.91 | $97.2 | +$9.29 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $77.34 | $27.88 | -$49.46 |
Invested
$16,465.68
Value
$18.2K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$4,423.85
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$432.03
Record
40%
29-44 (73)
Invested
$1,164.86
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$11.13
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$116.54
Value
$125.48
PnL
+$8.94
Record
—
3-2 (5)
balthazarARB<$100Invested
$165.25
Value
$125.08
PnL
-$40.17
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.