Consensus PnL $119K · win rate 43% (2575–3429, n=6004) · PM monthly #360 · holds 54 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$119.2K
Record
2575W / 3429L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 6004 settled
Batting Avg
51.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2265
Source
PM monthly #360
Record (90 d)
280/530 · 53%
Trades
23,505
Markets
10,056
Volume
$9.3M
Top consensus positions
54 in listed consensus markets · 31 of 54 on the consensus side (57%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $5.7K · now 72¢with the consensus (81% of 118)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $4.8K · now 93¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (61% of 46)
- Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $4.6K · now 86¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $4.4K · now 95¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (67% of 92)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseNo $3.1K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (42% of 26)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $2.7K · now 76¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (71% of 120)
- Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?No $2.5K · now 97¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (20% of 21)
- Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?No $2.4K · now 93¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (44% of 19)
Specialties
3,179 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 37¢- NBA
+8 pts
side won 44% of 16 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 28% of 913 at an average 28¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 54%(won 3% of 1709)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 42% of 458)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 62% of 132)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 96% of 880)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.