Bilbao Basket vs. Alba Berlin

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bilbao Basket (50%) · Bilbao Basket at 83¢ · $381 held · ends Nov 17

Bilbao Basket83¢Alba Berlin17¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bilbao Basket

Consensus Traders

Bilbao Basket 50%

Total Value

$381.38

Combined PnL

-$17.3

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 82.5¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBilbao Basket at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilbao Basket

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilbao Basket83%

Alba Berlin18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilbao Basket3 traders

Total Value$283.21

Total Shares333

Combined PnL+$27.76

Alba Berlin3 traders

Total Value$98.18

Total Shares546

Combined PnL-$45.06

Bilbao Basket — 50%Alba Berlin — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bilbao Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bilbao Basket) and the top 1000 (5 on Alba Berlin) disagree here.

ctrAlba Berlin 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBilbao Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alba Berlin 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Bilbao Basketavg 76.9¢	$240.63	$266.08	+$25.45	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Alba Berlinavg 26¢	$84.93	$65.33	-$19.6	25% 219-662 (881)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Alba Berlinavg 27¢	$54.95	$30.53	-$24.42	25% 220-643 (863)
tradecraft<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 74¢	$7.76	$8.91	+$1.15	17% 115-572 (687)
VeryLucky888<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 73¢	$7.06	$8.22	+$1.16	50% 240-242 (482)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Alba Berlinavg 21.7¢	$3.35	$2.31	-$1.04	54% 1631-1394 (3025)

Flaznorp

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$240.63

Value

$266.08

PnL

+$25.45

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

LimousinCTR<$100

Alba Berlin

Invested

$84.93

Value

$65.33

PnL

-$19.6

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Alba Berlin

Invested

$54.95

Value

$30.53

PnL

-$24.42

Record

25%

220-643 (863)

tradecraft<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$7.76

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$1.15

Record

17%

115-572 (687)

VeryLucky888<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$7.06

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$1.16

Record

50%

240-242 (482)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Alba Berlin

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$1.04

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

Research grade

AvoidBilbao Basket at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bilbao Basket

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bilbao Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bilbao Basket) and the top 1000 (5 on Alba Berlin) disagree here.

ctrAlba Berlin 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBilbao Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alba Berlin 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilbao Basket wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.