Consensus PnL $962K · win rate 48% (2363–2591, n=4954) · PM monthly #156 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$962.4K
Record
2363W / 2591L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 4954 settled
Batting Avg
47.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1872
Source
PM monthly #156
Trades
25,178
Markets
14,396
Volume
$27.5M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 10 on the consensus side (80%)- Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin VacherotJiri Lehecka $5.7K · now 87¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (65% of 27)
- Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs ZimbabweAfghanistan $1.4K · now 94¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Alex MolcanAlex Molcan $984 · now 100¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (54% of 24)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?Yes $126 · now 33¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?Yes $81 · now 31¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
- Bursaspor vs. KarsiyakaBursaspor $80 · now 47¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Aquila Basket Trento vs. Maxima RomaMaxima Roma $80 · now 62¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (50% of 9)
- Bratislava 2: Matyas Cerny vs Sebastian SorgerMatyas Cerny $54 · now 31¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Sebastian Sorger)
Specialties
2,580 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 50¢- Tennis
+8 pts
side won 64% of 1692 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +5%
- Soccer
+7 pts
side won 44% of 587 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +4%
- NFL
+10 pts
side won 54% of 113 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 31%(won 11% of 790)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 47% of 448)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 78% of 480)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 96% of 862)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.