Minas Tenis Clube MG vs. Unifacisa
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Minas Tenis Clube MG (43%) · Minas Tenis Clube MG at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
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Avoid
Minas Tenis Clube MG
7
Minas Tenis Clube MG 43%
$1.6K
$32.71
74.7¢ → 77.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMinas Tenis Clube MG at 78%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Minas Tenis Clube MG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Minas Tenis Clube MGavg 73.9¢ | $910.81 | $961.75 | +$50.94 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
ST stepanka1234 | Minas Tenis Clube MGavg 77.4¢ | $356.65 | $356.99 | +$0.34 | — 3-7 (10) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Unifacisaavg 26.8¢ | $99.58 | $77.95 | -$21.63 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Minas Tenis Clube MGavg 72.4¢ | $72.58 | $77.17 | +$4.59 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Unifacisaavg 22¢ | $73.21 | $73.21 | -$0 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Unifacisaavg 28¢ | $6.36 | $4.77 | -$1.59 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Unifacisaavg 21¢ | $1.06 | $1.11 | +$0.05 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
Invested
$910.81
Value
$961.75
PnL
+$50.94
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$356.65
Value
$356.99
PnL
+$0.34
Record
—
3-7 (10)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$99.58
Value
$77.95
PnL
-$21.63
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$72.58
Value
$77.17
PnL
+$4.59
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$73.21
Value
$73.21
PnL
-$0
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$6.36
Value
$4.77
PnL
-$1.59
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$0.05
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.