SV Wehen Wiesbaden vs. TSV Havelse: Both Teams to Score
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 59¢ · $320 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$320.23
-$3.3
59¢ → 59¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 59¢ | $135.74 | $135.74 | -$0 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $77.04 | $74.83 | -$2.21 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $61.95 | $61.95 | -$0 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $37.16 | $36.1 | -$1.06 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $9.59 | $9.59 | +$0 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $5 | $2.03 | -$0.03 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
Invested
$135.74
Value
$135.74
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$77.04
Value
$74.83
PnL
-$2.21
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$61.95
Value
$61.95
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$37.16
Value
$36.1
PnL
-$1.06
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.59
Value
$9.59
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.