Will FC Torpedo Belaz Zhodino win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 74¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.4K
-$22.81
65.9¢ → 73.5¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 65¢ | $763.06 | $592.84 | -$170.22 | 50% 2774-2749 (5523) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Yesavg 36.1¢ | $427.85 | $586.05 | +$158.2 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 68.6¢ | $236.38 | $230.99 | -$5.39 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $23.89 | $17.62 | -$6.27 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.1¢ | $1.6 | $2.48 | +$0.87 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
Invested
$763.06
Value
$592.84
PnL
-$170.22
Record
50%
2774-2749 (5523)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$427.85
Value
$586.05
PnL
+$158.2
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$236.38
Value
$230.99
PnL
-$5.39
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$23.89
Value
$17.62
PnL
-$6.27
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.87
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.