Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 31¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$3.5K
-$8.24
27.1¢ → 30.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
237h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SL SlavaUkrainiCTR | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$81.13 | 71% 160-66 (226) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 76.4¢ | $895.7 | $832.07 | -$63.72 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $720.33 | $778.49 | +$58.17 | 62% 45-28 (73) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 75.3¢ | $516.84 | $547.5 | +$30.66 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $114.6 | $167.3 | +$52.7 | 67% 751-378 (1129) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $64.6 | $59.69 | -$4.9 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$1,168.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$81.13
Record
71%
160-66 (226)
Invested
$895.7
Value
$832.07
PnL
-$63.72
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
Invested
$720.33
Value
$778.49
PnL
+$58.17
Record
62%
45-28 (73)
StarMasterInvested
$516.84
Value
$547.5
PnL
+$30.66
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
Invested
$114.6
Value
$167.3
PnL
+$52.7
Record
67%
751-378 (1129)
Invested
$64.6
Value
$59.69
PnL
-$4.9
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.