Consensus PnL $692K · win rate 68% (615–284, n=899) · PM monthly #400 · holds 92 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$691.6K
Record
615W / 284L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 899 settled
Batting Avg
65.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#812
Source
PM monthly #400 + pinned
Trades
181,582
Markets
1,445
Volume
$42.1M
Top consensus positions
92 in listed consensus markets · 90 of 92 on the consensus side (98%)- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No $404K · now 87¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (52% of 26)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No $109K · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (56% of 27)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $57K · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes $29K · now 89¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 18)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $26K · now 82¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
- Blue wave in 2026?Yes $17K · now 88¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No $14K · now 92¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No $12K · now 92¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (52% of 31)
Specialties
1,098 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 69¢- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 87% of 15 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +9%
- NFL
+3 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 86% of 117 at an average 91¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 2% of 295)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 23% of 22)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 50% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 69%(won 94% of 759)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.