Consensus PnL $85K · win rate 60% (32–21, n=53) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$84.5K
Record
32W / 21L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 53 settled
Batting Avg
54.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1180
Source
PM monthly #998 + pinned
Trades
2,315
Markets
99
Volume
$704.3K
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 24 on the consensus side (79%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $43K · now 72¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $17K · now 73¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $13K · now 49¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (63% of 27)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $12K · now 72¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $11K · now 27¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (63% of 31)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $9.9K · now 96¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $9.7K · now 97¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?Yes $5.3K · now 56¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
63 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 53¢- Crypto
+20 pts
side won 69% of 13 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +24%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 56% of 25 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +17%
- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 71% of 21 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 28% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 63% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 75% of 12)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 88% of 25)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.