Consensus PnL $726K · win rate 73% (144–52, n=196) · PM monthly #444 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$726.0K
Record
144W / 52L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 196 settled
Batting Avg
55.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#635
Source
PM monthly #444
Trades
581
Markets
253
Volume
$17.5M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 8 on the consensus side (88%)- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $38K · now 15¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (88% of 32)
- Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes $25K · now 85¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (50% of 22)
- Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?Yes $7.8K · now 59¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (42% of 12)
- Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $3.2K · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 19)
- Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?Yes $1.1K · now 29¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $735 · now 6¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (97% of 32)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $276 · now 78¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (52% of 33)
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $31 · now 41¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
224 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 70¢- Elections
+5 pts
side won 66% of 89 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 90% of 30 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 78% of 18 at an average 80¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 9% of 45)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 42% of 19)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 68% of 19)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 96% of 141)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.