Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Club Guabirá win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 49¢ · $160 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$160.05
-$0.46
44¢ → 48.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR | Noavg 44¢ | $230 | $101.8 | +$0.15 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $31.65 | $31.65 | -$0 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.2¢ | $11.85 | $11.49 | -$0.36 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $9.99 | $9.77 | -$0.11 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 57.2¢ | $5.48 | $5.35 | -$0.13 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
Invested
$230
Value
$101.8
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$31.65
Value
$31.65
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$11.85
Value
$11.49
PnL
-$0.36
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.77
PnL
-$0.11
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$5.48
Value
$5.35
PnL
-$0.13
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.