Botafogo FR vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 79¢ · $114 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$113.94
-$0.66
79¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 79¢ | $120.23 | $99.6 | -$0.63 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $7.14 | $7.19 | +$0.05 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $4 | $3.93 | -$0.08 | 52% 8576-7821 (16397) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 21.8¢ | $2.18 | $2.15 | -$0.03 | 52% 1158-1077 (2235) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 20.8¢ | $1.04 | $1.08 | +$0.03 | 52% 1146-1041 (2187) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$120.23
Value
$99.6
PnL
-$0.63
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$7.14
Value
$7.19
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$4
Value
$3.93
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
8576-7821 (16397)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
1158-1077 (2235)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.08
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
1146-1041 (2187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.