Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 25¢ · $257 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$257.12
$9.61
23.1¢ → 24.5¢
+6% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $73.81 | $84.24 | +$10.43 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $70.65 | $67.82 | -$2.83 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $36.52 | $36.52 | +$0 | 59% 3476-2367 (5843) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $36.52 | $36.52 | +$0 | 20% 97-381 (478) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $16.46 | $18.81 | +$2.35 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $12.5 | $12 | -$0.5 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $1.05 | $1.2 | +$0.15 | — 6-5 (11) |
Invested
$73.81
Value
$84.24
PnL
+$10.43
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$70.65
Value
$67.82
PnL
-$2.83
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$36.52
Value
$36.52
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3476-2367 (5843)
Invested
$36.52
Value
$36.52
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
97-381 (478)
Invested
$16.46
Value
$18.81
PnL
+$2.35
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$12
PnL
-$0.5
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.15
Record
—
6-5 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.