Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 0.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 94¢ · $606 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$605.86
-$0.04
93.5¢ → 93.7¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 93.5¢ | $482.19 | $482.19 | +$0 | 51% 1833-1786 (3619) |
SE sentrio | Overavg 93.5¢ | $111.64 | $111.64 | +$0 | 37% 341-573 (914) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 6.5¢ | $7.76 | $7.88 | +$0.12 | 30% 379-865 (1244) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 6.6¢ | $4.24 | $4.08 | -$0.16 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 6.5¢ | $0.07 | $0.07 | +$0 | 45% 263-317 (580) |
Invested
$482.19
Value
$482.19
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1833-1786 (3619)
Invested
$111.64
Value
$111.64
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
341-573 (914)
Invested
$7.76
Value
$7.88
PnL
+$0.12
Record
30%
379-865 (1244)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$4.08
PnL
-$0.16
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.07
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
263-317 (580)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.