Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will SC Recife win on 2026-11-06?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 42¢ · $435 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$434.74
$6.77
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $301.24 | $298.92 | -$2.32 | 51% 25630-24353 (49983) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $163.83 | $171.74 | +$7.9 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.7¢ | $137.39 | $127.17 | -$10.22 | |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Yesavg 36¢ | $204.35 | $83.78 | +$10.22 | 64% 1955-1087 (3042) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $47.8 | $28.2 | -$2.39 | 50% 25743-25431 (51174) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.2¢ | $10.17 | $10.39 | +$0.78 | 48% 7330-7836 (15166) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $9.99 | $8.67 | -$1.32 | 54% 2564-2224 (4788) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.8¢ | $19.57 | $4.78 | -$0.52 | 58% 46330-33448 (79778) |
Invested
$301.24
Value
$298.92
PnL
-$2.32
Record
51%
25630-24353 (49983)
Both legs:
Invested
$204.35
Value
$83.78
PnL
+$10.22
Record
64%
1955-1087 (3042)
Invested
$47.8
Value
$28.2
PnL
-$2.39
Record
50%
25743-25431 (51174)
Invested
$10.17
Value
$10.39
PnL
+$0.78
Record
48%
7330-7836 (15166)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$8.67
PnL
-$1.32
Record
54%
2564-2224 (4788)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19.57
Value
$4.78
PnL
-$0.52
Record
58%
46330-33448 (79778)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.