Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-11-07?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 64¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$88.46

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,683

Combined PnL-$41.77

No5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,735

Combined PnL-$46.69

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
K5 k56	Yesavg 62.6¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$41.77	57% 900-666 (1566)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 38.7¢	$719.02	$688.2	-$30.82	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 39.2¢	$276.79	$261.41	-$15.39	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$51.71	$49.06	-$0.66	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$10	$9.73	+$0.13	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$3.8	$3.7	+$0.05	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

k56

Yes

Invested

$1,678.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$41.77

Record

57%

900-666 (1566)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$719.02

Value

$688.2

PnL

-$30.82

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$276.79

Value

$261.41

PnL

-$15.39

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$51.71

Value

$49.06

PnL

-$0.66

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.73

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.